The most likely futures for post-Saddam Iraq are Sunni authoritarianism, the outbreak of civil war, the emergence of a Shi’ia Islamic Republic, or a prolonged and bloody U.S.-led occupation, said UCSB’s professor Richard Falk Friday night in a speech at the Fe Bland Forum.

The option of prolonged occupation “is likely to exert unpredictable shocks here in the United States, making the tumult of the Vietnam Era seem mild by comparison,” he said.

Falk, Milbank Professor of International Law Emeritus from Princeton University, gave his speech, “What is a Nation? What is a State? Exploring Minority Rights and their Limits” to a crowd of about 40 people Friday night. His was one of eight speeches that were part of two day conference titled “Clan, Tribe, Cult, Sect & Sovereign Nations: Group/Minority Rights, or Individual Rights, or Both?” The conference was sponsored by the City College department of philosophy’s Center for Philosophical Education.

The options Falk theorized are the most probable avenues to renewed Iraqi national self-determination result from the vacuum of sovereignty left in the wake of Hussein’s removal from power.

“The American project of regime change in Iraq has turned a previously Draconian Iraqi state into a scene of multiple terrorism, associated with religious extremism, national resistance, and the state terrorism of the occupiers,” he said. “We confront a dire set of circumstances in Iraq that do not contain credible positive options for a favorable end game at present.”

With the Iraqi War and its aftermath serving as one example of many, Falk discussed historical conflicts between the sovereign state powers of various countries, the large populations of minorities present within those countries, and attempts at international intervention. When a state power subjects a religious or ethnic minority to discrimination, it will tend to form a defensive nationalism for cultural survival, he said.

Except in cases of extreme humanitarian crisis, international intervention is an inherently risky undertaking. Nationalism under a perceived siege, Falk said, can have a temporary but powerful unifying effect, transcending deep religious and ethnic fissures.

“If this fusion should occur, it will convert the Iraq War from its notorious status of last May of ‘mission accomplished’ to a new tragic circumstance from a Washington perspective to ‘mission impossible,” he said.

Falk concluded his speech with several general observations, such as the dependence the promotion of democracy should have on the internal political processes of sovereign states, the need for United Nations endorsement for international interventions and the historical pattern of victory for movements of nationalist resistance.

Falk has authored several books, such as “On Human Governance” and Explorations at the Edge of Time,” and served on national, international, and United Nations commissions including the Independent World Commission on the Oceans and the Coming Global Civilization Project.

In addition to Falk’s speech, the conference hosted speeches by several other distinguished professors of philosophy, including Jovan Babic, Professor of Moral Philosophy at Belgrade University in Serbia and Visiting Professor of Philosophy at Portland State University, and J. Angelo Corlett, Professor of Philosophy and Ethics at San Diego State University and Editor-in-Chief of The Journal of Ethics: An International Philosophical Review.